IMF Fall 2023 Meetings Takeaways

November 2023

 
The world begins to worry about the US fiscal deficit.
Higher for longer US rates and the size of the US fiscal deficit were concerns shared in every meeting.
  • Rapidly rising long-term US real yields are sucking up global capital and raising global borrowing costs raising
  • the risk of financial accidents as credit is scarcer to lower rated borrowers.
  • Global growth outlook is mediocre, with only the US and China characterised by exceptionalism.
  • Global inflation is falling but too high, with US inflation still far from converging to target.
  • Pessimism on the outlook for China’s growth was pervasive, excessively to our eye, but China has policy options.
  • Against this concerning backdrop, the resilience of emerging market economies shone through; EM’s low
  • debt levels and independent central banks praised.
  • Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Hungary, and Czech Republic were among the major EMs that showed continued policy credibility
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