IMF Fall 2023 Meetings Takeaways
- Rapidly rising long-term US real yields are sucking up global capital and raising global borrowing costs raising
- the risk of financial accidents as credit is scarcer to lower rated borrowers.
- Global growth outlook is mediocre, with only the US and China characterised by exceptionalism.
- Global inflation is falling but too high, with US inflation still far from converging to target.
- Pessimism on the outlook for China’s growth was pervasive, excessively to our eye, but China has policy options.
- Against this concerning backdrop, the resilience of emerging market economies shone through; EM’s low
- debt levels and independent central banks praised.
- Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Hungary, and Czech Republic were among the major EMs that showed continued policy credibility