IMF Spring 2023 Meetings Takeaways
Monetary policy in developed markets is hardly tight with ex-post real rates negative and ex-ante real rates barely positive. Additionally, developed market monetary policy is being effectively neutered by the extraordinary actions of central banks to shield both markets and the real economy from any pain. Labor markets remain extremely tight not only due to strong demand but also by a shortage of labor supply. Oil prices are buoyed by strong global demand aided by robust tourism from China and an OPEC that is assertive in its desire to keep oil markets tight.