Murky markets hide glimmers of opportunity for the new financial year

Despite recent momentum in the S&P 500, global fund manager VanEck says looming headwinds – including global tariffs expected to resume next week – could have an outsized impact on the US economy. These downside risks make a strong case for investors to broaden exposure beyond over-concentrated markets.

New analysis published today in the latest VanEck ViewPoint, Difficulties & Opportunities, July 2025, identifies the global risk factors most likely to move markets and the overlooked assets gaining prominence against a growing loss of faith in US exceptionalism.

VanEck Asia Pacific CEO & Managing Director, Arian Neiron, made the following comments: “Risk assets seem to have recovered in the last few weeks, with the local bourse reporting its strongest 12-month performance since COVID and the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high. The optimism of market participants, however, is overshadowed by imminent risk factors, and we would go so far as to say that the likely narrative for the next quarter is as clear as mud. While pockets of opportunity still exist, we don’t think they’re in the same place they were 12 months ago.

“As investors reassess their portfolios for the new financial year, it is difficult to ignore the strength in emerging markets. Faltering US exceptionalism has supported a broader perspective on alternative opportunities, including emerging markets equities and bonds that have long been overlooked by investors. Many countries in this segment exhibit low debt levels and high interest rates, with independent central banks that have kept inflation low and currencies stable. Further, a number of these nations are net US dollar creditors and commodity exporters, which means they’re seeing many of the risks feared by developed markets as opportunities that will further bolster their economies. 

“We have seen gold maintain its traditional role as a safe haven asset during heightened uncertainty, and we think its rally will continue, even as investors pivot to risk-on assets when market volatility normalises. Our observation is that gold’s price momentum is supported by central banks diversifying their reserves rather than fluctuations in investor sentiment, providing greater long-term stability. Gold miners have been a major beneficiary of the rising gold price, almost doubling its performance gains this year. This sector could still have room to move, and a potential re-rating of the sector in the near future could see valuation metrics lift to be more in line with historical multiples,” said Neiron. 

The VanEck ViewPoint: Difficulties & Opportunities, July 2025 can be downloaded here. 

Published quarterly, the VanEck ViewPoint , offers a playbook for navigating markets in the near future. Taking a top-down view of the global economy, the paper details key risks and opportunities investors should consider as they reposition their portfolios.