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June 2022 QUARTERLY OUTLOOK
VanEck ViewPointTM The soft or hard landing calamity
The era of easy money ebullience is over. While we are not at the point of despair investors are feeling the bear market blues. It is wise to remember that bear markets are normal and tend to be short-lived. The question of reaching the peak or trough is a perpetual one and no investor has ever picked either. These markets present opportunities.
Apr 2022
That '70s Show
As the Russia/Ukraine conflict has highlighted, all financial markets are so interlinked, you do not know where the issue will be. Investors need to be wary. We however remain confident that central bankers, learning from the lessons of the past, will see us through. It is time to look at that past, the 1970s.
Jan 2022
Human after all
For the past few ViewPoints we have, some would say, been kicking and screaming about the persistence of inflation and the market’s apparent ignorance. We had labelled this ‘inflacency’, and while the problem seems to be gone in the short-term, it appears the dreaming in markets has not evaporated, it has just been pushed further into the future.
Oct 2021
Be on guard
The pace of economic growth is diverging. Some emerging markets are tightening, Europe and the US are heading toward tapering, growth in Australia has all but faltered and China has its own set of problems.
June 2021
A pinch of optimism
A review of the events of the past couple of years reads like the plagues in the Book of Exodus. So how has the market responded to any one of these potentially devastating events? With optimism.
March 2021
The rhyme of history
Markets appear to have priced in a return to ‘normal’. With an unwavering commitment by central banks to not fight inflation. The environment is being called reflationary. Reflation has happened before.
DECEMBER 2020
A world recalibrated
While e-commerce penetration has quantum leaped the last few months we observe a potential regime change may be at hand. For the last few years across developed markets, growth stocks have outperformed value by a long way. This may be coming to an end.
OCTOBER 2020
Resilience and patience
The global economy is experiencing an uneven and gradual healing with skews to the downside. The pace of the recovery will affect countries, industries and companies very differently.
JUNE 2020
Voting Machines and Weighing Machines
Sir John Templeton once said “the four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different”. Yet we think he would agree with us because this time is different. There is no precedent.
APRIL 2020
Black Swan time
It’s the definition of Black Swans that you don’t see them coming. Two have sailed into view: COVID-19 and an oil shock. In some ways they offset, in others they amplify. And it’s early days to have clarity on how big or how long-lasting their impact will be.
DECEMBER 2019
On the merry-go-round
This time a year ago, the trade war was going to be quick and “easy to win.” Now it’s clear that it will be an ongoing series of, often escalating, skirmishes, punctuated by face saving “deals” and “phases”.
OCTOBER 2019
The Wall of “No Worries”!
Seasoned investors talk of markets “climbing the wall of worry.” That is, far from potential problems pushing markets down, fear is leaving players under-invested and markets despite the uncertainty trend upwards. You could say that in 2019 the market has been vulnerable to relief rallies!