Gold’s relentless rally: Fundamentals and Renewed Investor Confidence

Gold surges to record highs

Gold’s relentless rally kicked into a higher gear in September, closing at US$3,858.96 per ounce on September 30, which was a gain of US$411.02 per ounce (11.92%) for the month. After trading range bound around the US$3,300 per ounce level for about five months, from mid-April to mid-August, gold had refused to take a breather, setting new highs almost every week since. 

Federal Reserve rate cut fuels momentum

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17 came as no surprise. The move, however, provided support for gold both before and after the announcement. Historically, lower interest rates have been positive for gold prices.

This inverse relationship is linked to investment demand, as investors are likely to invest in gold when the opportunity cost of holding the metal decreases as real (inflation-adjusted) rates fall. Combined with headline PCE accelerating in August (2.7% year-on-year vs 2.6% in July), the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut and a looming US government shutdown, put gold back on the market’s radar. This attracted flows into global gold bullion ETFs, which registered a 3.9% increase in holdings during the month, while remaining below record levels.

Central banks sustain historic buying

In contrast, central bank buying appears less sensitive to the interest rate and broader macro-economic environment. The official sector has been buying gold at record levels since 2022, emerging as a primary driver of the most recent gold bull market. While Western investors had been reducing their gold exposure since April 2022, their return to the gold markets over the past year, coupled with continued strength in central bank buying, created the powerful combination behind gold’s phenomenal price performance in 2025.

After pausing in July, central banks resumed gold purchases in August, adding a net 15 tonnes to global reserves, according to World Gold Council estimates. The National Bank of Kazakhstan led the buying for the month, followed by the National Bank of Bulgaria and the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador. The National Bank of Poland, this year’s largest buyer, reaffirmed its pro-gold stance by raising its target gold share within its international reserves from 20% to 30%, a level well above most peers.

The People's Bank of China reported its tenth consecutive monthly increase in gold reserves, bringing its gold holdings to more than 2,300 tonnes, though still accounting for only 7% of total international reserves. The Czech National Bank’s total gold reserves increased to 65 tonnes, with a target to hold 100 tonnes of gold as part of its international reserves by the end of 2028.

These are indications that, despite recent moderation in purchases, central banks’ appetite for gold remains robust. In fact, we may be in the early stages of a global de-dollarisation movement where gold is likely to play a leading role.

The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index  rose 19.49% in September, outperforming gold. This spectacular performance was the perfect backdrop for the sector’s flagship events held in Colorado annually.

2025 Gold Forum Americas & Precious Metals Summit takeaways

This year’s conferences struck a confident but measured tone. Both the Gold Forum Americas and the Precious Metals Summit in Colorado drew record attendance, which was a mix of producers, institutional investors, banks, and corporate development teams. The mood was positive, but not exuberant, as companies emphasised on strong free cash flow, record margins, and renewed growth plans, while remaining committed to cost control, capital discipline and delivering against their targets.

Producers: Execution, growth, and capital discipline

At the Gold Forum Americas conference, we met with over 40 companies. For producers, the focus remains on operational efficiency and disciplined growth. Many companies highlighted the advancement of organic projects, with expansions and life-of-mine extensions at or near existing operations and infrastructure still a preference, as compared to greenfield projects. At current gold prices, funding capital programs is no longer a constraint, and hedging is being phased out. Strong cash flow generation allows the producers to refocus on their project pipelines, increase their flexibility to redesign or rescope projects targeting improved profitability and returns, and expand their ability to make more impactful acquisitions. In addition, major producers such as Newmont and Barrick Mining have taken advantage of strong gold markets to divest non-core assets at attractive valuations, boosting their cash positions.

The message was consistent: balance sheets are healthy, but capital discipline remains a priority, with shareholders reminding companies not to repeat mistakes of prior bull markets. With a focus on quality over quantity and de-risking, companies are targeting opportunities that enhance their portfolios (e.g., lower cost ounces, better mining jurisdictions, truly synergetic consolidations, and opportunistic equity investments), which is keeping M&A activity far from frenzying levels. Debt repayment, increased dividends, and share buybacks are being emphasised.

Notably, many producers are using gold price assumptions for estimating their reserves and resources that represent more than a 50% discount to the current spot gold price. This conservatism highlights the producers’ desire to stay prudent despite record margins, reassuring investors, who, in large part, still lack exposure to the sector.

Cost cutting initiatives, offset by relatively mild industry cost inflation (3-5% in 2025) appear to be keeping a lid on costs. Lower employee turnover was reported by several companies, but in some cases, this came with higher pay, leading to increased labour costs. In other cases, a slowdown in activity in other sectors has improved labour availability. Overall, the sector struggles to attract talent and find skilled labor locally. In response, companies are partnering with universities, increasing the number and type of training programmes, moving people across operations globally, and ramping up their use of autonomous and remotely operated equipment.

Industry developments and policy tailwinds

The biggest industry news came from Barrick’s preliminary economic assessment (PEA) of its Fourmile project (100% owned by Barrick) in Nevada. Pending significant further drilling, the PEA points to a potential 25-million-ounce high-grade gold resource, which is within the world’s largest gold mining complex, Nevada Gold Mines (NGM), a joint venture between Barrick and Newmont, operated by Barrick. The announcement was well timed with a post-conference visit to NGM, which we attended. This sparked notable Barrick stock price outperformance, and was followed by the surprise departure of the company’s CEO, announced on September 29. On that same day, Newmont also announced an expected leadership transition, appointing current Chief Operating Officer Natascha Viljoen as its new CEO, effective January 1, 2026.

Government policy was also featured in conversations. We met with the Mines Minister of British Columbia (BC), who highlighted streamlined permitting systems and stronger engagement with First Nations, positioning BC as a leader in responsible resource development. We see this as a new era of government awareness around the development of critical resources that bodes well for the North American mining industry.

Outlook: Gold equities poised for revaluation

We believe the case for gold equities remains compelling. Strong fundamentals, resilient balance sheets, and historically low valuations create an attractive opportunity set. This is supported by a rising gold price outlook, particularly as broader investors begin to re-engage with the sector.