The Future Fund’s playbook for AI and what it means for investors

Portfolio Resilience: AI, is the fifth position paper the sovereign fund has published, and each has described how the investment landscape is shifting, and why previously held rules may no longer hold.

As we noted in December 2025, after they published the fourth paper, the Future Fund does not invest in a different environment than other Australian investors; its paper, therefore, should be a consideration for all investors.

The same applies today.

The Future Fund approaches AI as a whole-of-portfolio, multi-asset approach that spreads exposure across the entire value chain, diverse technologies, and geographies.

Diversify across all four "tech layers"

It is impossible for anyone to confidently predict the pace and size of AI’s impact. Diversification continues to be the golden rule for the Future Fund.

This means diversifying across the entire AI ecosystem, which the Future Fund categorised into four layers:

• Hardware (the "picks and shovels")
• Infrastructure (the building blocks) like data centres, electricity grids, power generation, and digital networks
• Platforms (the intermediaries) which include foundation models and hyperscalers that dominate the stack.
• Applications (end-user software)

The next generation of investment opportunities won't necessarily come from artificial intelligence itself, but from the industries making it possible.

For the past two years, much of the market's attention has focused on the companies developing artificial intelligence applications. Today, the investment opportunity is much broader.

Artificial intelligence has evolved into one of the world's largest physical infrastructure investment cycles. The world's largest hyperscalers are expected to invest US$765 billion this year building the data centres, networking infrastructure and computing capacity needed to power the next generation of AI.

At the same time, investment in quantum computing start-ups reached US$12.6 billion in 2025, highlighting growing confidence that the next frontier in computing is moving from scientific research towards commercial reality. McKinsey & Company’s research suggests quantum computing could deliver US$1.3-2.7 trillion in worldwide economic value by 2035.

Delivering this next generation of computing will require enormous investment in computing power, advanced semiconductors and the strategic materials underpinning modern technologies. Rather than viewing these developments in isolation, we believe they represent three interconnected parts of the same long-term investment opportunity.

Technology has become a strategic asset

It is also worth noting the Future Fund’s considerations on geopolitical fragmentation. The paper notes “AI is increasingly treated as strategic and sovereign infrastructure rather than general-purpose technology, creating strategic competition between nations.”

Artificial intelligence has become much more than just another technological innovation. Technology is increasingly becoming a matter of national security as well as economic growth.

Governments around the world are investing billions to expand domestic semiconductor manufacturing, secure critical mineral supply chains and accelerate quantum research. Initiatives such as the US CHIPS Act, new critical minerals partnerships and the $22.7 billion Future Made in Australia program all point to the same conclusion: computing power, semiconductor capacity and access to strategic materials are no longer simply commercial advantages. They have become strategic national priorities.

For investors, this represents a structural shift. Technology leadership is increasingly being determined by both software innovation and access to computing power, semiconductor manufacturing capacity and resilient supply chains for the materials underpinning advanced technologies.

The investment opportunity is therefore broadening beyond today's AI beneficiaries to include the industries enabling tomorrow's technological economy.

Sharp regional differences creating opportunities

We think the observation in the Future Fund paper on regional divergence has the potential to be overlooked. While the US leads on foundation models and hyperscaler capex, the paper identifies Australia, alongside Singapore and Southeast Asia, as potentially benefiting from digital infrastructure deployment and a strong resource and manufacturing base. Critically, it flags that AI adoption will drive demand for the commodities Australia produces, including critical minerals, energy inputs and advanced manufacturing.

The question the paper raises for domestic investors is how to hold that exposure: which parts of the Australian market are positioned for it, and how to own them without concentrating risk in a handful of names.

An AI future and beyond

The Future Fund closes with a question few investors are yet seriously posing: "Will the emergence of quantum computing create obsolescence across certain chip foundries?" It's a live risk to the semiconductor thesis and a separate opportunity.

That said, it views “AI as a global structural force – a force that will shape capital flows, market structures and long-term returns. We also believe AI is one of the biggest long-term themes faced by investors in our lifetime and is creating a significant and diverse opportunity set that we need to embrace as part of our goal to build a resilient investment portfolio.”

We think ETFs on ASX allow investors to build resilience like the Future Fund has and will continue to do.

The Future Fund closes with, “Our portfolio will continue to evolve as we better understand the dynamics around this important opportunity set…” ETFs provide a practical way for investors to evolve their portfolios. In this way, ASX investors can build a portfolio consistent with the Future Fund’s and access “one of the defining opportunities of our time.”

Applying the Future Fund’s AI framework with ETFs

Applications:

VanEck Quantum ETF (ASX: QNTM) provides targeted exposure across the quantum computing value chain. Whether quantum complements or disrupts existing AI infrastructure, the Future Fund, we think, is right – quantum computing belongs in a resilient portfolio.

AI hardware ‘picks and shovels’:

VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ex China ETF (ASX: RESM) targets companies mining, refining and recycling the materials behind AI: neodymium, cobalt, lithium, gallium. The ex-China construction is deliberate, directly addressing the supply chain sovereignty risk the Future Fund identifies across its "Ruptures" and "Divided World" scenarios.

VanEck Global Semiconductor ETF (ASX: SMHG), launched this month, addresses both the opportunity and the risk. Tracking the MarketVector Global Semiconductor Index, SMHG currently holds 37 companies across chip designers, manufacturers and equipment providers (TSMC, Nvidia, Broadcom, ASML, Samsung), capped at 8% per constituent and diversified across US, Taiwanese, Korean, Japanese and European names. One trade buys the entire semiconductor value chain.

AI infrastructure:

VanEck FTSE Global Infrastructure (AUD Hedged) ETF (ASX: IFRA) provides diversified exposure to the energy transmission, utility and communications infrastructure assets underpinning AI's physical requirements. For investors wanting direct energy exposure, VanEck Uranium and Energy Innovation ETF (ASX: URAN) captures the nuclear renaissance underway as hyperscalers seek reliable baseload power that meets both scale and emissions requirements.

VanEck Global Clean Energy ETF (ASX: CLNE) is an investment in the global energy supply of the future, which is transitioning to infinite clean energy away from finite non-renewable sources via a single trade on ASX.

The paper points to power generation and grid build-out as access points to the AI build-out. IFRA, URAN and CLNE are ETF approaches designed for investors to express that same thesis.

AI platforms:

In terms of Private Equity, the VanEck Global Listed Private Equity ETF (ASX: GPEQ) gives investors access to a global diversified portfolio that provides targeted exposure to venture capital, growth and buy-out opportunities. Invest in a transparent portfolio of listed and liquid direct & indirect private equity as well as private equity managers.

Key Risks

An investment in any of the funds may carry risks associated with: ASX trading time differences, financial markets generally, individual company management, industry sectors, quantum computing industry (QNTM), foreign currency, country or sector concentration, hedging, political, bond markets, listed private equity (GPEQ), regulatory and tax risks, fund operations and tracking an index. While it is not possible to identify every risk relevant to your investment, we have provided details of the risks that may affect an investment in the relevant product disclosure statement and the target market determination.