What Australia's Future Fund gets right about AI and how to act on it using ETFs

As we noted in our December 2025 Vector Insights, after they published the fourth paper, the Future Fund does not invest in a different environment than other Australian investors; its paper, therefore, should be a consideration for all investors.

The same applies today.

When Australia's sovereign wealth fund, managing more than A$337 billion (with $269 billion in its own portfolio), publishes a position paper, we think all Australian investors (which we all are via superannuation) should pay attention. To their credit, these documents are written so that they can be easily understood. They tend to be brief (the current iteration clocks in at nine pages plus an appendix) and without technical jargon.

Its recent August 2026 paper, doesn't pretend to know how AI plays out, rather it builds a framework for being right across multiple future outcomes.

The architecture of the opportunity

The Future Fund identifies four technology layers (Hardware, Infrastructure, Platforms and Applications) and pairs each with four macro scenarios, concluding that because AI's behaviour differs across each, the only robust approach is a "diverse, multi-asset framework" that captures the entire chain.

For Australian investors, we think that entire chain is now accessible on the ASX.

Hardware: Semiconductors

The Future Fund identifies chip foundries as the "picks and shovels" of AI: companies with high barriers to entry, concentrated market structures and the financial capacity to compound innovation advantages. It explicitly flags "complexities of regional allocations" as a challenge for hardware investors.

VanEck Global Semiconductor ETF (ASX: SMHG), launched this month, addresses both the opportunity and the risk. Tracking the MarketVector Global Semiconductor Index, SMHG currently holds 37 companies across chip designers, manufacturers and equipment providers (TSMC, Nvidia, Broadcom, ASML, Samsung), capped at 8% per constituent and diversified across US, Taiwanese, Korean, Japanese and European names. One trade buys the entire semiconductor value chain.

Infrastructure: Power and data centres

AI's electricity demands are "reversing decades of flat power consumption," the Future Fund notes, with global electricity forecast to grow 15–20% by 2030 driven substantially by data centres. Infrastructure is where long-duration capital earns its return.

VanEck FTSE Global Infrastructure (AUD Hedged) ETF (ASX: IFRA) provides diversified exposure to the energy transmission, utility and communications infrastructure assets underpinning AI's physical requirements. For investors wanting direct energy exposure, VanEck Uranium and Energy Innovation ETF (ASX: URAN) captures the nuclear renaissance underway as hyperscalers seek reliable baseload power that meets both scale and emissions requirements.
VanEck Global Clean Energy ETF (ASX: CLNE) is an investment in the global energy supply of the future which is transitioning to infinite clean energy away from finite non-renewable sources to “tilt renewables” via a single trade on ASX.

The paper points to power generation and grid build-out as access points to the AI build-out. IFRA, URAN and CLNE are ETF approaches designed for investors to express that same thesis.

Platforms: Private equity and scaled operators

We think the observation in the Future Fund paper on regional divergence has the potential to be overlooked. While the US leads on foundation models and hyperscaler capex, the paper identifies Australia, alongside Singapore and Southeast Asia, as potentially benefiting from digital infrastructure deployment and a strong resource and manufacturing base. Critically, it flags that AI adoption will drive demand for the commodities Australia produces being critical minerals, energy inputs and advanced manufacturing.

The question the paper raises for domestic investors is how to hold that exposure: which parts of the Australian market are positioned for it, and how to own them without concentrating risk in a handful of names. Two VanEck ASX ETFs, we think, solve that problem.

VanEck MSCI Australian Quality Plus ETF (ASX: AQTY) applies a quality lens to the domestic market. Tracking the MSCI Australia IMI Quality Plus Index, AQTY selects ASX-listed companies ranked on fundamental quality characteristics (ROE, earnings stability, financial leverage) with a valuation discipline overlay and a slight value skew relative to the S&P/ASX 200. Where the paper favours scaled operators with durable moats, AQTY is a systematic way to express that preference in Australian equities.

VanEck Australian Equal Weight ETF (ASX: MVW) addresses a second theme the paper raises: concentration risk. MVW is the only broad-based Australian equities ETF that equally weights its holdings, making it approximately 2.5 times more diversified than market-cap weighted S&P/ASX 200 ETFs as measured by the Herfindahl Index¹. The Future Fund paper asks "how long are investors willing to take on risk concentration to be exposed to the biggest factor in the listed equity market?" The Future Fund has been candid that it has not acted on its own question: the former Chief Investment Officer, Ben Samild, has said index concentration "isn't one we've tried to mess around with" (Investment Magazine, September 2025), because stepping away requires a view on AI winners The Future Fund is not yet comfortable taking. MVW is one potential answer, reducing overexposure to the banks and miners that dominate domestic cap-weighted indices.

In terms of Private Equity, the VanEck Global Listed Private Equity ETF (ASX:GPEQ) gives investors access to a global diversified portfolio that provides targeted exposure to venture capital, growth and buy-out opportunities. Invest in a transparent portfolio of listed and liquid direct & indirect private equity as well as private equity managers.

Applications: The Quantum Horizon

The Future Fund closes with a question few investors are yet seriously posing: "Will the emergence of quantum computing create obsolescence across certain chip foundries?" It's a live risk to the semiconductor thesis and a separate opportunity.

VanEck Quantum ETF (ASX: QNTM), the third of VanEck's newly launched trio, provides targeted exposure across the quantum computing value chain. Whether quantum complements or disrupts existing AI infrastructure, the Future Fund, we think, is right – quantum computing belongs in a resilient portfolio.

Geopolitical fragmentation and compression considerations

It is also worth noting that the Future Fund’s considerations on geopolitical fragmentation, noting “AI is increasingly treated as strategic and sovereign infrastructure rather than general-purpose technology, creating strategic competition between nations.” One example of this is the rare earth bottleneck.

VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ex China ETF (ASX: RESM), also newly launched, targets companies mining, refining and recycling the materials behind AI: neodymium, cobalt, lithium, gallium. The ex-China construction is deliberate, directly addressing the supply chain sovereignty risk the Future Fund identifies across its "Ruptures" and "Divided World" scenarios.

Conclusion

The Future Fund's conclusion is that it views “AI as a global structural force – a force that will shape capital flows, market structures and long-term returns. We also believe AI is one of the biggest long-term themes faced by investors in our lifetime and is creating a significant and diverse opportunity set that we need to embrace as part of our goal to build a resilient investment portfolio.”

We think ETFs on ASX allow investors to build resilience like The Future Fund has and will continue to do. 

The Future Fund closes with, “Our portfolio will continue to evolve as we better understand the dynamics around this important opportunity set…” ETFs provide a practical way for investors to evolve their portfolios. In this way, ASX investors can build a portfolio consistent with the Future Fund’s and access “one of the defining opportunities of our time.”

Key Risks: An investment in any of the funds may carry risks associated with: ASX trading time differences, financial markets generally, individual company management, industry sectors, quantum computing industry (QNTM), foreign currency, country or sector concentration, hedging, political, bond markets, regulatory and tax risks, fund operations and tracking an index. While it is not possible to identify every risk relevant to your investment, we have provided details of the risks that may affect an investment in the relevant product disclosure statement and the target market determination.